Allan Lichtman 2024 Keystone. Historian allan lichtman, who has accurately predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, said he still. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), lichtman had been predicting trump’s win since september 2016.

Lichtman’s 13 keys to the white house provide a robust framework for predicting presidential elections, emphasizing the importance of governance over campaign tactics. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race.